Scenarios: Imagination, Futures, Anticipation, Readiness
Scenarios: Imagination, Futures, Anticipation, Readiness
Scenarios used in Foresight and Futures research
| Year | Scenario | creator | URL | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 2, 2010 | The Foresight Engine | Institute for the Future IFTF | Foresight Engine | Alternative Futures Scenario framework |
| June 17, 2010 | California Dreaming Map | Institute for the Future IFTF | California Dreaming Map | Alternative Futures Scenario framework |
| June 17, 2011 | Reinventing Energy Futures | Institute for the Future IFTF | Reinventing Energy Futures | Alternative Futures Scenario framework |
| October 17, 2011 | Microscope | Ben Robbins | Microscope | Card game |
| October 12, 2014 | The Thing from the Future | Situation Lab, a research-design studio co-founded by Stuart Candy and Jeff Watson | The Thing from the Future | Role-playing game |
SETI Scenarios
"Alien" message tests human decoders | New Scientist, 2002
The SETI Decrypt Challenge, 2017, Astrobiology
Message from Afar, 2019 - led by Martin Dominik fromafar.world
Futures Studies and Scenario Techniques
In relation to SETI specifically
Futures Studies and Scenario Techniques In relation to SETI specifically
Profitiliotis, George & Haqq-Misra, Jacob. (2023). The Future of Space Activities and Preservation on Mars: A Preliminary Policy Delphi Study. Advances in Space Research https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2023.03.042.
Profitiliotis, George. (2022). Anticipatory Science Diplomacy as a Governance And Cooperation Mechanism for the Search for Extraterrestrial Life. Journal of Science Policy & Governance. 20. 10.38126/JSPG200304.
Harrison, A. 2011. “Fear, pandemonium, equanimity and delight”. Phil Trans R Soc A 369:656-668. Article link
Tarter, Donald E. (1992). Interpreting and Reporting on a SETI Discovery: We Should Be Prepared, Space Policy 8 (2): 137–48.
More Generally
Aguilar, Francis J. 1967. "Scanning the Business Environment." New York: Macmillan.
Ansell-Pearson, Keith (2002). Philosophy and the Adventure of the Virtual. NY: Routledge.
Birth, Keith (2012). Objects of Time. NY: Palgrave.
Brandt, E. and Grunnet, C. (2000) Evoking the future: Drama and props in user centred design, Proc. PDC’00
Brooks, Lonny and Pollock, Ian. (2018) “Minority Reports from 2054: Building Collective and Critical Forecasting Imaginaries via Afrofuturetypes and Game Jamming” in the special issue of TOPIA, Black Lives, Black Politics, Black Futures (in press).
Çakır, Serkan, and Mehmet Şafak Canbolat. 2018. "A novel method to use fuzzy sets in PESTEL analysis." Technological and Economic Development of Economy 24, no. 6: 2207-2225.
Candy, Stuart. (2018). Gaming futures literacy: The Thing From The Future. In Transforming the Future: Anticipation in the 21st Century
Christofilopoulos, Epaminondas & Profitiliotis, George. (2022). Business Futureproofing Developed By UNESCO CHAIR ON FUTURES RESEARCH. 10.13140/RG.2.2.15677.95204.
Cixin, Liu (刘慈欣), translated by Ken Liu. (2014). The Three-Body Problem (《三体》). Tor, NY, New York.
Dator's Four Generic Scenario Archetypes method, also known as the Mānoa School Scenario Modelling Method of Future Studies. This uses an approach known as "alternative futures," in which students are guided to consider multiple potential scenarios for the future, including four archetypal ways of thinking about the future: growth, collapse, discipline, and transformation futures. Hawaii 2000—a year-long, cross-island endeavour that utilised then-cutting edge communication technologies and a range of tools for engaging various stakeholders. The widely used set of alternative futures to describe four archetypal ways of thinking about the future were developed at the University of Hawaii.
Deleuze, Gilles (1988). Bergsonism. NY: Zone Books.
Dunagan, J. Massively Multiplayer Futuring: IFTF’s Foresight Engine. Journal of Futures Studies, September 2012, 17(1): 141-150 https://jfsdigital.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/171-S05.pdf
Ehn, P., Nilsson, E.N., Topgaard, R. and Watts, L. (2012) Making Futures – Challenging Innovation, Proc. PDC’12: http://tinyurl.com/oq7vk85
Ehn, P., Nilsson, E.N. and Topgaard, R. (2014) Making Futures: Marginal Notes on Innovation, Design, and Democracy, MIT Press
Dator, J. (2009). Alternative Futures at the Manoa School, Journal of Future Studies,14(2), pp. 1-18.
Fabian, Johann (1983). Time and the Other. NY: Columbia University Press.
Genevieve, Kate (2022). “The readiness is all.” SETI Post-detection through practice-based research. Ethnographies of Outer Space: Methodological Opportunities and Experiments, Trento, Italy, 2022, 1 - 2 September.
Grosz, Elizabeth (1999). Becomings. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.
Hodges, Matt (2008). “Rethinking time’s arrow.” Anthropological Theory 8(4): 309-429.
Huang, Wei, Nicholas E. Simmonds, and Bruce A. McCarl. 2015. "Assessment of the effects of uncertain climate change on agricultural land use change and market outcomes." American Journal of Agricultural Economics 97, no. 1: 113-135.
Institute for the Future - IFTF Foresight Essentials Scenario Building • California Dreaming Map (2010)
• Reinventing Energy Futures: Four Visions (2011)
• Four Futures of Food (2011)
• The Future of Youth Employment (2014)
• Families in Flux: Imagining the Next Generation of the American Family (2020)
• Foresight Engine circa 2010 - an online platform that allows participants from around the world to play games that provide insights and ideas about how to solve future challenges
Light, A. Collaborative speculation: Anticipation, inclusion and designing counterfactual futures for appropriation, Futures, Volume 134, 2021 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2021.102855
Lyons et al. Scenario planning for transport practitioners, 2021
Makridakis, Spyros and Rob J. Hyndman, Fotios Petropoulos. (2020) Forecasting in social settings: The state of the art. International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 36, Issue 1, 2020, 15-28 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.05.011.
Mulgan, G. (2020). The Imaginary Crisis (and how we might quicken social and public imagination). UCL STEaPP working paper series. https://www.ucl.ac.uk/steapp/sites/steapp/files/2020_04_geoff_mulgan_swp.pdf
Petropoulos, Fotios and Daniele Apiletti, Vassilios Assimakopoulos, Mohamed Zied Babai, Devon K. Barrow, Souhaib Ben Taieb, Christoph Bergmeir, Ricardo J. Bessa, Jakub Bijak, John E. Boylan, Jethro Browell, Claudio Carnevale, Jennifer L. Castle, Pasquale Cirillo, Michael P. Clements, Clara Cordeiro, Fernando Luiz Cyrino Oliveira, Shari De Baets, Alexander Dokumentov, Joanne Ellison, Piotr Fiszeder, Philip Hans Franses, David T. Frazier, Michael Gilliland, M. Sinan Gönül, Paul Goodwin, Luigi Grossi, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Mariangela Guidolin, Massimo Guidolin, Ulrich Gunter, Xiaojia Guo, Renato Guseo, Nigel Harvey, David F. Hendry, Ross Hollyman, Tim Januschowski, Jooyoung Jeon, Victor Richmond R. Jose, Yanfei Kang, Anne B. Koehler, Stephan Kolassa, Nikolaos Kourentzes, Sonia Leva, Feng Li, Konstantia Litsiou, Spyros Makridakis, Gael M. Martin, Andrew B. Martinez, Sheik Meeran, Theodore Modis, Konstantinos Nikolopoulos, Dilek Önkal, Alessia Paccagnini, Anastasios Panagiotelis, Ioannis Panapakidis, Jose M. Pavía, Manuela Pedio, Diego J. Pedregal, Pierre Pinson, Patrícia Ramos, David E. Rapach, J. James Reade, Bahman Rostami-Tabar, Michał Rubaszek, Georgios Sermpinis, Han Lin Shang, Evangelos Spiliotis, Aris A. Syntetos, Priyanga Dilini Talagala, Thiyanga S. Talagala, Len Tashman, Dimitrios Thomakos, Thordis Thorarinsdottir, Ezio Todini, Juan Ramón Trapero Arenas, Xiaoqian Wang, Robert L. Winkler, Alisa Yusupova, Florian Ziel, Forecasting: theory and practice, International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 38, Issue 3, 2022, 705-871, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.11.001.
George Profitiliotis. (2022). Testing the ‘Thing from The Future Minecraft Education edition’ with secondary education students Journal of Futures Studies, Perspectives January 26
Voros, Joseph. A primer on Futures Studies, foresight and the use of scenarios 2001-2022. First published in prospect, the Foresight Bulletin, No. 6, December 2001, Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne, Australia. Last updated 2022-03-08.
Wack, P. Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead. HBR Magazine (September 1985) https://hbr.org/1985/09/scenarios-uncharted-waters-ahead
cf. the Design and Art Science page