Scenarios: Imagination, Futures, Anticipation, Readiness

Scenarios used in Foresight and Futures research

Year	Scenario	creator	URL	Type
June 2, 2010	The Foresight Engine	Institute for the Future IFTF	Foresight Engine	Alternative Futures Scenario framework
June 17, 2010	California Dreaming Map	Institute for the Future IFTF	California Dreaming Map	Alternative Futures Scenario framework
June 17, 2011	Reinventing Energy Futures	Institute for the Future IFTF	Reinventing Energy Futures	Alternative Futures Scenario framework
October 17, 2011	Microscope	Ben Robbins	Microscope	Card game
October 12, 2014	The Thing from the Future	Situation Lab, a research-design studio co-founded by Stuart Candy and Jeff Watson	The Thing from the Future	Role-playing game

SETI Scenarios

Scenarios towards SETI Research specifically

Year	Scenario	creator	URL	Type
2002	Test Message	Yvan Dutil and Stephane Dumas	"Alien" message tests human decoders in New Scientist	binary string test message
2017	The SETI Decrypt Challenge	Astrobiology	California Dreaming Map	Message for Public Decryption
2018 ongoing	From Afar	University of St. Andrews	[Message from Afar, 2019 - led by Martin Dominik fromafar.world]	Large-scale Questionnaire
2019 ongoing	A Sign in Space	Daniela de Paulis (SETI Institute)	[1]	Message for Public Decryption

Futures Studies and Scenarios Research

In relation to SETI specifically

Futures Studies and Scenario Techniques In relation to SETI specifically

Heller, R. (2019) ‘Decryption of messages from extraterrestrial intelligence using the power of social media – The SETI Decrypt Challenge’, International Journal of Astrobiology, 18(4), pp. 296–303. doi:10.1017/S1473550417000568.

Profitiliotis, George & Haqq-Misra, Jacob. (2023). The Future of Space Activities and Preservation on Mars: A Preliminary Policy Delphi Study. Advances in Space Research https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2023.03.042.

Profitiliotis, George. (2022). Anticipatory Science Diplomacy as a Governance And Cooperation Mechanism for the Search for Extraterrestrial Life. Journal of Science Policy & Governance. 20. 10.38126/JSPG200304.

Harrison, A. 2011. “Fear, pandemonium, equanimity and delight”. Phil Trans R Soc A 369:656-668. Article link

Tarter, Donald E. (1992). Interpreting and Reporting on a SETI Discovery: We Should Be Prepared, Space Policy 8 (2): 137–48.

More Generally

Aguilar, Francis J. 1967. "Scanning the Business Environment." New York: Macmillan.

Ansell-Pearson, Keith (2002). Philosophy and the Adventure of the Virtual. NY: Routledge.

Birth, Keith (2012). Objects of Time. NY: Palgrave.

Brandt, E. and Grunnet, C. (2000) Evoking the future: Drama and props in user centred design, Proc. PDC’00

Brooks, Lonny and Pollock, Ian. (2018) “Minority Reports from 2054: Building Collective and Critical Forecasting Imaginaries via Afrofuturetypes and Game Jamming” in the special issue of TOPIA, Black Lives, Black Politics, Black Futures (in press).

Çakır, Serkan, and Mehmet Şafak Canbolat. 2018. "A novel method to use fuzzy sets in PESTEL analysis." Technological and Economic Development of Economy 24, no. 6: 2207-2225.

Candy, Stuart. (2018). Gaming futures literacy: The Thing From The Future. In Transforming the Future: Anticipation in the 21st Century

Chaplin, George Ed, Paige, Glenn D. Ed. Hawaii 2000 Continuing Experiment In Anticipatory Democracy. University of Hawai'i Press, Honolulu, 1973.

Christofilopoulos, Epaminondas & Profitiliotis, George. (2022). Business Futureproofing Developed By UNESCO CHAIR ON FUTURES RESEARCH. 10.13140/RG.2.2.15677.95204.

Dator, J. "Alternative Futures at the Mānoa School," Journal of Futures Studies, Vol. 14, No. 2, 2009, pp. 1–18.

Deleuze, Gilles (1988). Bergsonism. NY: Zone Books.

Dunagan, J. Massively Multiplayer Futuring: IFTF’s Foresight Engine. Journal of Futures Studies, September 2012, 17(1): 141-150 https://jfsdigital.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/171-S05.pdf

Ehn, P., Nilsson, E.N., Topgaard, R. and Watts, L. (2012) Making Futures – Challenging Innovation, Proc. PDC’12: http://tinyurl.com/oq7vk85

Ehn, P., Nilsson, E.N. and Topgaard, R. (2014) Making Futures: Marginal Notes on Innovation, Design, and Democracy, MIT Press

Dator, J. (2009). Alternative Futures at the Manoa School, Journal of Future Studies,14(2), pp. 1-18.

Fabian, Johann (1983). Time and the Other. NY: Columbia University Press.

Genevieve, Kate (2022). “The readiness is all.” SETI Post-detection through practice-based research. Ethnographies of Outer Space: Methodological Opportunities and Experiments, Trento, Italy, 2022, 1 - 2 September.

Grosz, Elizabeth (1999). Becomings. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.

Hodges, Matt (2008). “Rethinking time’s arrow.” Anthropological Theory 8(4): 309-429.

Huang, Wei, Nicholas E. Simmonds, and Bruce A. McCarl. 2015. "Assessment of the effects of uncertain climate change on agricultural land use change and market outcomes." American Journal of Agricultural Economics 97, no. 1: 113-135.

Institute for the Future - IFTF Foresight Essentials Scenario Building • California Dreaming Map (2010)

• Reinventing Energy Futures: Four Visions (2011)

• Four Futures of Food (2011)

• The Future of Youth Employment (2014)

• Families in Flux: Imagining the Next Generation of the American Family (2020)

• Foresight Engine circa 2010 - an online platform that allows participants from around the world to play games that provide insights and ideas about how to solve future challenges

Light, A. Collaborative speculation: Anticipation, inclusion and designing counterfactual futures for appropriation, Futures, Volume 134, 2021 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2021.102855

Lyons et al. Scenario planning for transport practitioners, 2021

Makridakis, Spyros and Rob J. Hyndman, Fotios Petropoulos. (2020) Forecasting in social settings: The state of the art. International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 36, Issue 1, 2020, 15-28 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.05.011.

Mulgan, G. (2020). The Imaginary Crisis (and how we might quicken social and public imagination). UCL STEaPP working paper series. https://www.ucl.ac.uk/steapp/sites/steapp/files/2020_04_geoff_mulgan_swp.pdf

Petropoulos, Fotios and Daniele Apiletti, Vassilios Assimakopoulos, Mohamed Zied Babai, Devon K. Barrow, Souhaib Ben Taieb, Christoph Bergmeir, Ricardo J. Bessa, Jakub Bijak, John E. Boylan, Jethro Browell, Claudio Carnevale, Jennifer L. Castle, Pasquale Cirillo, Michael P. Clements, Clara Cordeiro, Fernando Luiz Cyrino Oliveira, Shari De Baets, Alexander Dokumentov, Joanne Ellison, Piotr Fiszeder, Philip Hans Franses, David T. Frazier, Michael Gilliland, M. Sinan Gönül, Paul Goodwin, Luigi Grossi, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Mariangela Guidolin, Massimo Guidolin, Ulrich Gunter, Xiaojia Guo, Renato Guseo, Nigel Harvey, David F. Hendry, Ross Hollyman, Tim Januschowski, Jooyoung Jeon, Victor Richmond R. Jose, Yanfei Kang, Anne B. Koehler, Stephan Kolassa, Nikolaos Kourentzes, Sonia Leva, Feng Li, Konstantia Litsiou, Spyros Makridakis, Gael M. Martin, Andrew B. Martinez, Sheik Meeran, Theodore Modis, Konstantinos Nikolopoulos, Dilek Önkal, Alessia Paccagnini, Anastasios Panagiotelis, Ioannis Panapakidis, Jose M. Pavía, Manuela Pedio, Diego J. Pedregal, Pierre Pinson, Patrícia Ramos, David E. Rapach, J. James Reade, Bahman Rostami-Tabar, Michał Rubaszek, Georgios Sermpinis, Han Lin Shang, Evangelos Spiliotis, Aris A. Syntetos, Priyanga Dilini Talagala, Thiyanga S. Talagala, Len Tashman, Dimitrios Thomakos, Thordis Thorarinsdottir, Ezio Todini, Juan Ramón Trapero Arenas, Xiaoqian Wang, Robert L. Winkler, Alisa Yusupova, Florian Ziel, Forecasting: theory and practice, International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 38, Issue 3, 2022, 705-871, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.11.001.

George Profitiliotis. (2022). Testing the ‘Thing from The Future Minecraft Education edition’ with secondary education students Journal of Futures Studies, Perspectives January 26

Voros, Joseph. A primer on Futures Studies, foresight and the use of scenarios 2001-2022. First published in prospect, the Foresight Bulletin, No. 6, December 2001, Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne, Australia. Last updated 2022-03-08.

Wack, P. Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead. HBR Magazine (September 1985) https://hbr.org/1985/09/scenarios-uncharted-waters-ahead

cf. the Design and Art Science page